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vGIANTSBOARD.COM
IN THE CLUBHOUSE
Quentin: Buy low.
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irishbum
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Re: Quentin: Buy low.
why would you trade Cain for more prospects marco?
if Alderson and Bumgardner are future rotation guys wouldnt you like to get a stud bat in return for arguably the best pitcher in the NL at the present moment
6/26/2009, 4:08 pm
Xellos007
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Re: …
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I'm pretty sure they would hang up on that offer (I know I would). Would you trade Sandoval for that package? Because, even with the injuries, that's probably about how much Quentin means to the Sox's future.
Slightly off topic, but I was listening to Tolbert early this afternoon and he related a scouting report on Alderson from one of his buddies (who happens to work as a scout for the Rangers, making his annual rotation through through Norwich). It wasn't a favorable review: Alderson gets by with excellent command of a high-80's fastball and average secondary pitches, mid-rotation upside; it really made him sound like Yusmeiro Petit or Jerome Williams redux (my names, not his). If that's how other organizations see him, I think we may be overestimating his trade value (and possibly his prospect ranking).
The report on Bumgarner was sunnier. Top of the rotation potential with an elite fastball, but his secondary pitches are still works in progress, and he's probably farther off than most Giants fans seem to think.
that is alderson scouting report out of high school.
low 90 fastball with plus plus command.
http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/events/draft_report/y2007/tracker.jsp?mc=alderson
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6/26/2009, 4:14 pm
chefjuan
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Re: Quentin: Buy low.
quote:
Carlos Quentin. My new fetish.
He will be entering arb year 1 next season, he wont be a FA until 2013. He underperformed in irregular duty with AZ in 2007 before the DBacks bailed on him and sent him to the ChiSox for Chris Carter who was later shipped to the A's with others for Dan Haren.
Quentin was probably the leading candidate for the AL MVP last season until he was injured 130 games in.
He was off to a mixed start this year before going on the DL with Plantar fascitis.
His 2009 line:
131 AB 20 R 30 H 6 2B 0 3B 8 HR 20 RBI 11 BB 17 SO .229 BA .325 OBP .458 SLG .783 OPS
His OBP has always been well above his BA and since getting regular time he's hit 44 HR in 611 AB.
He has been injury prone, but that's one reason he's worth pursuing. His value has definitely taken a hit this year, and I am sure there are those in the White Sox front office who might fear 2008 was an fluke, rather than a breakout.
He's still only 26, and has this season plus three more before free agency. Another plus, he's not a Boras client so there is the possibility of a long term deal before he reaches FA. Also he is an OF so we wont have a log jam once Villalona has his breakout 19 y/o season next year. 
What do you guys think he's worth? or is he too big of a risk all together.
I floated this idea on the OMB. As a matter of fact, I had almost the exact same thread title.
This was before he went on the DL. There was talk about Williams and Ozzie not being too happy with Quentin. They didn't seem to like his attitude and trying to play through an injury. Little do they know that we VALUE that out here in SF!!!! LOL
Maybe Williams would seize teh opportunity to set up his club's future while also doing away with a potential malcontent.
I would give something big like Angel and Alderson because that's what I think he's worth.
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"If the Pilgrims had landed in California the East Coast would still be wilderness"
6/26/2009, 8:09 pm
Bhaakon
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Re: Quentin: Buy low.
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For Quentin, I tend to agree. I'd be absolutely thrilled if Villalona ever hit like Quentin has, and he'll never have the defensive value. Even if I new Angel would pan out, I'd strongly consider trading five years of good hitting two or three seasons from now (and I say five because it's unreasonable to expect him to emerge as a middle of the order hitter in his rookie season) for three years of good hitting right now.
6/26/2009, 8:18 pm
MarcoPolo666
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Re: Quentin: Buy low.
quote:
why would you trade Cain for more prospects marco?
if Alderson and Bumgardner are future rotation guys wouldnt you like to get a stud bat in return for arguably the best pitcher in the NL at the present moment
I thought I was pretty clear :
If MadBum and Alderson come up mid-year 2010 (and are successful #2 and #3 starters), that makes Cain tradable for a super-package of great prospects.
To re-state : IF we have a (somewhat) proven replacement for Cain, then we trade the guy with fewer years left, and keep the cheap guy who looks like a valid replacement, while filling the minors with a boatload of prospects. IF nobody offers quality prospects, then ****em' and we keep Cain.
6/26/2009, 8:51 pm
MarcoPolo666
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…
Although maybe I didn't understand the question. If the question is why not replace him NOW, the answer is "because there isn't a PROVEN replacement arm ready".
6/26/2009, 8:53 pm
chefjuan
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Re: Quentin: Buy low.
quote:
If MadBum and Alderson come up mid-year 2010
(and are successful #2 and #3 starters), that makes Cain tradable for a super-package of great prospects.
The success is the key to that statement. It took Cain three full years to reach his potential. Even if these two are more advanced when they get here, I'm still expecting them to be performing at that level until 2011 or 12. Lincecum is a special talent to become to dominant so fast.
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"If the Pilgrims had landed in California the East Coast would still be wilderness"
6/26/2009, 9:14 pm
MarcoPolo666
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Re: Quentin: Buy low.
quote:
quote:
If MadBum and Alderson come up mid-year 2010
(and are successful #2 and #3 starters), that makes Cain tradable for a super-package of great prospects.
The success is the key to that statement. It took Cain three full years to reach his potential. Even if these two are more advanced when they get here, I'm still expecting them to be performing at that level until 2011 or 12. Lincecum is a special talent to become to dominant so fast.
I can see your point, and my response is "yes and no". First, throw out the W-L record. That is a bull**** way to judge a pitcher; W-L is a TEAM stat, not a pitching stat. You can look at ERA, ERA+, WHIP, K/9, H/9, BB/9, whatever. He is pretty much the same pitcher he has been since he came to the league. Is he a better pitcher now? Yup. Why is he "so much better" now? Well, first, he isn't trying to strike everybody out, and thus goes deeper into games (including 3 complete games this year, equal to the number of the last 3 years combined - his ERA isn't dependent as much on the pen). Second, his team is hitting, and the defense is better (Cain is a fly-ball pitcher, so the crap at SS doesn't hurt him as much.)
Is he a better pitcher? Yes. But not as much better as you would think : he actually has run support this year, which is the biggest difference.
6/26/2009, 9:48 pm
chefjuan
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Re: Quentin: Buy low.
Cain has been good since he got here, but as you've pointed out, he's adjusted his approach and is having better success.
I would expect MadBum and Alderson to have to go through the same thing. It's one thing to get into the bigs and another to find that level of comfort to become dominant.
Clayton Kershaw still hasn't pitched in the 8th inning in his young career and he ****s the bed completely every few outings. Same thing is probably going to happen to our kids in their first year or so.
It's rare that it all "comes together" in the first full season. So rare that they actually give an award for that!
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"If the Pilgrims had landed in California the East Coast would still be wilderness"
6/26/2009, 9:58 pm
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