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Freshbreaker
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Hey 3G, Neal wasn't even considered a "prospect" until about 6 weeks ago. Let's not get to excited yet. Pedro Feliz was the PCL player of the year, and stunk it up for most of his time in SF. Sanchez had some of the best numbers of any pitcher in the system in the minors but has really only had one half season of good performance. I don't know all that much about player development, but what I have found in observing statistics is that the players who are not impacted by promotions statistically, or the players who are able to adjust within a month or so of promotion, are the ones that get the cup of coffee, once they get to the majors, it's a crap shoot.
Ishikawa is an exception, he got promoted to AAA and was horrendous for most of the season before going absolutely bezerk for three weeks leading up to a call up.
These guys need time so that hot streaks can be distinguished from real progress.
The most intriguing prospects right now to me are Crawford, Bumgarner and Villalona.
Crawford might have been the best hitter in teh PCL before his call up to AA. Immediately following the call up he hit well but has struggled much of the past month. If he adjusts and shows steady improvement over the next 2-3 months, I could see him getting fast tracked, but it's more likely he will stay in AA the rest of the season and try to figure things out.
Villalona started the season strong which is not his MO. He typically finishes strong. He has struggled lately and hasn't played much at all over the past couple weeks. If he can finish the season strong, he'll probably earn another promotion, setting himself up for a vital 19 y/o season next year. If he continues to struggle as he has for much of the past 3-4 weeks, he's in danger of repeating A+ and losing his Uber Prospect status.
While Bumgarner's ERA has remained low as you point out, his K:BB and k9 numbers have taken a big hit at AA. His K9 is only at 7.4
other Giants pitching prospects at AA:
Williams 5.3
Ainsworth 7.4
Foppert 10.9
Sanchez 13.2
Cain 7.5
Lincecum never pitched in AA but had a 16.5 K9 over his first partial season in MiLB.
So his rate is good at 7.4 but not great. Ainsworth and Cain are good company. I think Ainsworth would have been a good major league pitcher, but he lost his career to a shoulder injury shortly after being traded.
I think over the next 3 months we'll find out if Bumgarner is a great prospect or a very good one. But he is clearly being challenged in AA so I don't see any reason to promote him.
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Travis Ishikawa is NOT a competent first baseman.
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6/29/2009, 10:38 am
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dredinis21
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Registered: 10-2006
Posts: 484
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Re: …
quote:
Freshbreaker wrote:
Hey 3G, Neal wasn't even considered a "prospect" until about 6 weeks ago. Let's not get to excited yet. Pedro Feliz was the PCL player of the year, and stunk it up for most of his time in SF. Sanchez had some of the best numbers of any pitcher in the system in the minors but has really only had one half season of good performance. I don't know all that much about player development, but what I have found in observing statistics is that the players who are not impacted by promotions statistically, or the players who are able to adjust within a month or so of promotion, are the ones that get the cup of coffee, once they get to the majors, it's a crap shoot.
Ishikawa is an exception, he got promoted to AAA and was horrendous for most of the season before going absolutely bezerk for three weeks leading up to a call up.
These guys need time so that hot streaks can be distinguished from real progress.
The most intriguing prospects right now to me are Crawford, Bumgarner and Villalona.
Crawford might have been the best hitter in teh PCL before his call up to AA. Immediately following the call up he hit well but has struggled much of the past month. If he adjusts and shows steady improvement over the next 2-3 months, I could see him getting fast tracked, but it's more likely he will stay in AA the rest of the season and try to figure things out.
Villalona started the season strong which is not his MO. He typically finishes strong. He has struggled lately and hasn't played much at all over the past couple weeks. If he can finish the season strong, he'll probably earn another promotion, setting himself up for a vital 19 y/o season next year. If he continues to struggle as he has for much of the past 3-4 weeks, he's in danger of repeating A+ and losing his Uber Prospect status.
While Bumgarner's ERA has remained low as you point out, his K:BB and k9 numbers have taken a big hit at AA. His K9 is only at 7.4
other Giants pitching prospects at AA:
Williams 5.3
Ainsworth 7.4
Foppert 10.9
Sanchez 13.2
Cain 7.5
Lincecum never pitched in AA but had a 16.5 K9 over his first partial season in MiLB.
So his rate is good at 7.4 but not great. Ainsworth and Cain are good company. I think Ainsworth would have been a good major league pitcher, but he lost his career to a shoulder injury shortly after being traded.
I think over the next 3 months we'll find out if Bumgarner is a great prospect or a very good one. But he is clearly being challenged in AA so I don't see any reason to promote him.
I agree that MadBum shouldn't be rushed. However, I don't necessarily believe that his k/9 is the proper stat in judging his progress. I would look at BB/9, WHIP, and how efficient he is on his pitch count. Look at Sanchez and Cain as perfect examples. Cain had a 10+ k/9 yet took two years in the ML learning how to be more aggressive so he could last past the 5th inning more consistently. Sanchez struck out everyone in AA yet moves up and his inconsistency has been noted repeatedly on this board.
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6/29/2009, 11:27 am
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MarcoPolo666
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Registered: 07-2007
Posts: 4732
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Re: …
quote:
Freshbreaker wrote:
Ishikawa is an exception, he got promoted to AAA and was horrendous for most of the season before going absolutely bezerk for three weeks leading up to a call up.
I read this as saying that Ishikawa sucked in AAA (horrendous = sucked) after getting promoted there, except for his last three weeks. That simply is not true. He was promoted to AAA after having a decent start to the season in AA (.291/.382/.462/.844).
Once he got to AAA :
Jun 32ABs, 2 HRs, .313/.361/.656/1.017
July 94 ABs, 7 HRs, .245/.308/.582/.890
Aug 41 ABs, 7 HRs, .463/.510/1.171/1.681
Did he have a monster August? Yes, he did. But he didn't "suck" at all in his time in Fresno. .245 isn't great, but paired with a HR every 13 ABs? That sounds a lot like Adam Dunn - this year, last year, the year before, the year before that ...
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6/29/2009, 4:11 pm
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Freshbreaker
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Registered: 10-2006
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My bad, I was going from memory. But July and August power numbers in the PCL aren't exactly a proper gauge for MLB performance.w
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Travis Ishikawa is NOT a competent first baseman.
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6/29/2009, 4:21 pm
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GoGiantsGo
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Registered: 06-2009
Posts: 436
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Neal can play any OF position, and I think he played CF, during the Single A All-Star game. He is athletic enough to play any OF position.
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6/29/2009, 7:16 pm
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